A Hand You Only See At The $100 Table

$100 No Limit is the lowest level of NL Hold Em at most casinos, which usually means it is the home of the lowest calibre of player. This is the story of a hand that demonstrates some of the ridiculousness of the players at $100 NL.

There was no preflop raise and there were about 6 players in the hand. There were three key players. One in early position with Ace-Jack of diamonds. Another limped early with King-6 of hearts. I kid you not. Another player limped late with King-7 of clubs. People love any face card that it is suited with a rag.

Preflop, AJs was 52.84% to win. King-7 was 24.36% to win. King-6 was 18.49% to win.

The flop was Ace, King, six, rainbow. So one player had top pair, another had 2nd pair, and a 3rd had 2nd and 3rd pair.

The player with Aces bet, the player with two pair raised pretty strongly. For some reason, the player with King-7 called. She had 2nd pair with the 6th best kicker possible. The player with Ajax called the raise. At least he had top pair with the 2nd best possible kicker. Here are the odds:

King-6: 59.25%
Ace-Jack: 31.01%
King-7: 9.52%

King-7 had 3 outs, the three other 7s in the deck. Ace-Jack had 5 outs (2 Aces, 3 Jacks) and running cards over 6 would make for a higher 2 pair.

The turn was, of course, a 7. This gave the player with King-7 a higher two pair. The player with AJ checked, K6 bet, K7 called, AJ raised all-in, K6 called, K7 called. By this time, the pot was about $700 and was won by a player with a Godawful shitty hand.

Wait, Aces Aren't Supposed to Hold Up

So I'm in early position and look down at WMD, American Airlines, Rockets, Aces. I raise to $12 ($1/$2) blinds. This is a solid raise, especially in early position. However, I get one caller, then another, then another, and then another. Even though I have Aces, I'm worried. Here were the hands I was up against: King-Jack, Ace-Queen, Five-Seven, and King-Deuce. Here are the preflop percentages:

AA: 58.1%
KJ: 9.5%
AQ: 5.85%
75: 21.2%
K2: 5.6%

Even though I'm 58.1% to win, and about 3 to 1 against any individual hand, I'm still a little nervous. Actually, the situation could have been a lot worse. If I was up against a few suited connectors and a few small pairs, then I'd be in real trouble. Aces are only 42% to win against pocket 4s, 8s, JTs, and 56s, for instance.

So the flop came with 5 players in the hand and a $60 pot. Ten of clubs, six of clubs, eight of spades. I still had the best hand with Aces, no other player had a pair. The player with 7-5 had an open ended straight draw. As you might be able to guess, he wasn't very good at poker. Here were the odds after the flop:

AA: 59.4%
KJ: 4.1%
AQ: 2.8%
75: 32.7%
K2: 1.1%

I bet out $15, hoping to get a few players out. However, all but one of them believed me. The player with King-Jack called, he had two overs to the flop, a backdoor flush draw and a backdoor straight draw. Ace-Queen called, same stuff. The player with 7-5 raised to $30. The player with K-2 believed me and folded. I called the $15, worried that the moron had flopped two pair or a set or a straight. K-J called, A-Q called. Four players in the hand with a $180 pot.

The turn card was a Queen of spades. This gave K-J another straight draw, and A-Q top pair. I checked, K-J went all-in for $27. A-Q called, 7-5 called. The way 7-5 just called let me know that he didn't have something absolutely massive like a straight or a set or two pair. I called the $27. Here were the percentages:

AA: 71.1%
KJ: 13.2% (5 outs: four 9s, and one Ace for a straight)
AQ: 5.3% (2 outs: two Queens)
75: 10.5% (4 outs, four 4s)

So 11 cards in the deck give me a losing hand, 27 cards give me a winning hand. The river was one of those 27, an 8 of hearts. However, I was still worried. There was a straight draw on the board and it had paired. I checked, A-Q checked, and 7-5 led out, $40. I didn't know if I was good so I just called. A-Q called as well. I was relieved to win the hand with my Aces up I was also pleased to win a $408 pot.

An Interesting Hand, AA vs. KK vs. TT vs. 86s

Here is a hand from the Turning Stone Casino at the $100 NL Hold Em table (blinds are $1/$2). The player under the gun raised to $12. Normally that is a strong raise, but this player didn't know what he was doing. He called an all-in re-raise with pocket 4s (he was up against AA but spiked a 4 on the river).

So anyway, the player to the right of the raiser called, then the next player raised to $22. A player in late position called the $22 raise. Here is what they had. Their likelihood of winning is in parenthesis.

Under the gun raiser: AA (51.2%)
Early caller: KK (17.5%)
Early re-raiser: TT (13.6%)
Late caller: 86s. (17.5%)

I wouldn't have called with 86s there, mainly for fear of a re-raise, but that doesn't mean it was a bad call. The player was sitting next to me and remarked that he knew he was beat. He also knew the pot was going to be huge. At the time he made the call of $22, there was already $49 in the pot. Now since the initial raiser obviously didn't know the value of hands as demonstrated by his all-in call with 44, the player with 86s could have assumed that he raised with a weak hand and would call the re-raise. Since the early caller already called one bet, it was very safe to assume that he'd merely call the bet. This would make the pot $20 large for a total of $69. With a $69 pot, the pot odds for a $22 call would be 3.14 to 1. The player with 86s was a 4.71 underdog to win the pot. According to pot odds, it wasn't a good call.

HOWEVER, the implied odds were ridiculous. It was pretty obvious that at least one, probably two, and maybe even all three of the other players had high pocket pairs. This would make them difficult to fold. A hand like 86 suited has potential to be a giant killer. If it hit two pair, or a flush, or a straight, it can crush a pocket pair. Since the other players in the hand were so strong, the potential size of the pot at the end of the hand was enormous. I'd say it could be estimated at least $200 more and probably a great deal more, going into the hand (the under the gun raiser, the early caller, and the early raiser all had sizeable stacks of chips in front of them). Let's estimate the size of the potential pot to be around $270. This would make a $22 call result in 12.27 to 1 implied odds. Again, the 86 had a 4.71 to 1 odds against chance to win. This would make the call correct.

Unfortunately for my friend with the 86, the under the gun raiser re-re-raised $80 more to make the total bet $102. The early caller (the one with Kings) called. The early re-raiser (the one with 10s) made a good read and folded. The decision came back to the late caller with 86s. Now the pot was up to $251, but it now cost $80 more to see a flop. Since the pocket 10s folded, here are the new odds:

Aces: 63.0%
Kings: 17.0%
86 suited: 19.6%

Throwing in $80 for a $251 pot results in pot odds of 3.14 to 1, ironically the same pot odds that the player with 86s had before when the raise was $22. Of course, the implied odds increased as it became blatantly clear what the two other players in the hand had. The guy with 86s, whose name was Rob, leaned over to me and said "I know they have Aces and Kings." Knowing this, he knew that this hand would result in an all-in one way or the other. After calling the $80, he would have about $130 left. If he hit, and both the other players went all-in, he'd get double that barring an outdraw. This made the implied pot a whopping $511 for Rob. $80 into a potential $511 pot equates to implied odds of 6.39 to 1. With the 10s gone, Rob was 19.6% to win which means the odds against him were only 4.10. Considering the inevitable size of the pot, and the fact that there would be no more preflop re-raising if Rob called, Rob's decision to call was justifiable.

The hand went to a flop three handed. Aces against Kings against Eight-Six of diamonds. The size of the pot at this point was $331. The player with Aces had about $200 left, as did the player with Kings. The flop went like this:

Ten of hearts, 9 of diamonds, 6 of clubs. The player with 10s would have made top set, but he made the correct fold. The player with Aces moved all-in on this seemingly blank flop. The player with Kings called. The pot was now somewhere in the $700, $800 range. For Rob, the pot was about $590. Rob had a pair, a gutshot straight draw, and a backdoor flush draw. He also had a hell of a decision to make.

For $130 more, Rob could gamble hoping to hit one of his 9 outs (the three 8s, the two 6s, and the four 7s) or maybe catch a runner-runner flush draw. On the T-9-6 flop, here are how the odds stacked up.

Aces: 54.5%
Kings: 8.9&
86s: 35.3%

So Rob was not that much of an underdog to win the hand. The odds stacked up against him were only 1.83 to 1. The pot odds ($130 call into a $590 pot) were 4.54 to 1. Rob knew he was crushed, but he also knew he had outs and had GREAT pot odds. He called. Sadly, the turn was a 3 of clubs. Rob was now only 21.43% to win. The river was the Ace of hearts (which would have trounced the set of 10s folded by one of the players) and pocket Aces held up. The pot wound up being about $900, a monster pot for $100 NL.

For Rob, the problem with the hand was a mathematical quagmire. Poker is a game of time, and over time it can be argued that Rob made the right decision. Supposing the exact situation occurred 100 times, from the flop, Rob would win 35 times and lose 65 times. The 65 losses would result in a loss of $8,450 (if all the stack sizes were the same), and the 35 wins would result in a gain of $20,650. Over the long run the call results in a $12,200 profit for Rob ($122 per hand on average). After the flop he made the right decision. Risking $130 for an average profit of $122 is a good move.

The call of the $80 re-re-raise preflop is less clear. In 100 identical situations, Rob would win 20 times. He'd lose 80 times. Let's say the potential pot was about $590 for Rob. The 80 times he lost would cost him $6,400. The 20 times he won would earn him $11,800. This means a total profit of $5,400, or $54 per hand. Risking $80 for an average profit of $54 is slightly less of a good move.

The problem with the 8-6 was that in order for playing it against AA and KK, you've got to be willing to lose more times than win. Even after the nice flop, the 8-6 still loses 65 times out of 100. You must have the sufficient bankroll to gamble thusly in order for the move to work out. Poker is a game of time and playing like Rob played in this hand requires patience, the ability to calculate, and a hefty bankroll to absorb the inevitably large number losses. In fact, your bankroll would need to be about $15,000+ in order for this type of play to really work out for you.

PLAYING WELL AND STILL LOSING

There was a hand at the Turning Stone last night, pocket Jacks against pocket Queens. The player with Jacks raised to $35 under the gun ($1/$2 blinds). The player with Queens called. The flop were all low cards. The player with Jacks bet about $20, the player with Queens moved all-in. The player with Jacks called. The turn was a blank and the river was a Jack.

The player with Jacks proceeded to shoot imaginary guns at the player with Queens. Later, the player with Jacks justified his play by saying that he made a good call because he won the hand. However, the numbers disagree.

Before the flop, the Queens were an 81% favorite. After the flop, they were a 92% favorite. Calling when you're 8% to win, and the pot odds are not 11 to 1 is an incorrect call no matter how you slice it. The player with Queens played the hand perfectly, in my opinion. But he still lost.

The same thing happened to me ad nauseum last night. I believe I played solidly, not perfectly, but better than most players at the table. I still lost $272 though.

The beginning was rough. I made some stupid calls with the 2nd best flush draw, and lost to the nut flush draw. That was $23 down the drain. Then I had Jack-8 on the button, flopped top pair, turned 2 pair, and lost to a flush on the river.

The player who had called an all-in with an 8% chance to win raised late with 6-3, then showed it. On the next hand, he raised with T-9. I called with J-T. Another player called with Q-J. Before the flop, I was in pretty bad shape, only a 15.5% chance to win it. The flop was a miracle, though. Queen, 9, 8. So I had the nut straight, and there was no flush draw to protect against.

I checked, first to act. The player with Q-J had flopped top pair and a straight draw so he bet out. The player with T-9 had 2nd pair and a straight draw, so he called. I raised. The player with Q-J went all-in for a few dollars more. The player with T-9 called. I called. At this point, I was 79.7% to win. But I was also 16.8% to tie. I was 96.5% likely to make money on the hand.

The turn was a 10, which fucked me over. It gave the kid with T-9 outs to win the hand, and gave the kid with Q-J the same straight as me. I now had no chance to outright win the hand, and a 7% chance of losing it. The kid with T-9 pushed all-in after my check, and I called. The river was a blank. I made money on the hand, but if the 10 hadn't come, I would've made about $80 more. I think the kid with T-9 would have been bad enough to go all-in even without hitting 2 pair.

After hours of folding crappy hands, not even suited connectors or anything, absolute garbage, I started bluffing at pots. The calling stations at the table gave me action, but called with crappy hands that would hit. I raised preflop with rags, and the flop was 7, Ace, Ace. I bet at it, and a guy called me. I knew he had a 7. The turn was, of course, a 7. I bet at it again, but he wasn't good enough to fold a lower full house so I lost the pot.

I won a few small and mid-sized pots to keep about $100 down on the night for most of my session. Then I got Aces in the small-blind. I was hoping to win at least a small pot with them. I raised to $12 and got 2 callers. The flop were all low cards, two of which were diamonds. I wanted to take it down right there. I bet out $15 and got a caller. The river was the 4 of diamonds. I bet out $15 again. This time, it was raised to $30. Now I knew that the other guy had hit his BS flush. But, I had the Ace of diamonds so I called the $15. The river was a blank. I checked, the other player bet $30, and I folded the Aces in his face. I was pretty pissed.

He had something like J-9 of diamonds. I know he had the Jack of diamonds, and the other diamond was a non-face card that was in the middle of the the deck. Before the flop, I was a 4 to 1 favorite against him. On the flop, I was a 2 to 1 favorite. This technically means his calling of my $15 was a good call ($15 call into a $65 pot). However, if I had two higher diamonds, it would be an erroneous call.

The turn gave the other guy the best hand, but I was still 16% to win the hand with the nut flush draw. I called a $15 bet into a pot of $125 (8.33 to 1 pot odds) and figured the implied odds were even better. If I hit one of the remaining 7 diamonds in the deck (particularly the king or queen), I could have taken at least $50 on the river, if not more. I figured the implied pot was about $175 for me (11.67 to 1 implied odds with a hand that was 5.25 to 1 to win).

Of course, the blank river meant I had to fold my Aces.

I had to fold Ace Queen a few times preflop. Once to Ace-King, once to tens. Each time it was the same situation. I'd get A-Q early or under the gun, raise a small amount to keep too many people from staying in, establish strength, and to build a pot. Then the same stupid player would re-raise me a huge amount. Each time, I knew I was either beat, or it was a race.

Racing is pointless in a cash game unless you have odds. To go heads up with big slick suited against a pocket pair is foolish, in my opinion. You mind as well go to the roulette table, and put $100 on black. It's essentially the same bet. Sometimes, it is good to race. If you've got Ace-King and you're up against two people, each with pairs, then it isn't so bad to race. You're about a 40% favorite, with a pot that is 50% bigger.

I folded tens preflop. This guy raised very strong under the gun and I put him on AA or KK. I was in the big blind, and everyone else folded. It wasn't worth it to either race or be dominated 4 to 1.

My last hand came 11 hours into playing. At this point I had been whittled away to a stack of about $100 in chips. I looked down at Ace-Jack suited in late position and raised to $7. Again, just trying to build a pot, get the button, and establish strength. I got 4 callers. The flop was 6, 8, 7. The 8, and 10 were of spades, just like my Ace-Jack. Everyone checked to me. I bet $15 with the nut flush draw and 2 overs. I got one caller, two folders, then this guy raised me, $40 on top. This would essentially put me all-in. I didn't think he had a straight, or a set. I finally put him on a pair. I didn't know if it was a pair on the board, or in his hand. With my 2 overcards, and my nut flush draw, I was around even money to win the hand, so I pushed in all my chips, $36 on top of his $40 raise. He called without hesitation. He flipped over a 6 and a 4 of spades.

I was confused, because I thought 6-4 was a crappy hand. I was pleased to see I had a good deal of outs (13 of them), but I was upset that he had 2 of the spades I needed to win the hand. The turn was an 8 of diamonds, and the river was a 2 of clubs. It was 3 AM and I was tired of the BS, so I drove home.

On the hand, I was 2 to 1 preflop against 6-4 of spades. I went all-in with a 42% chance of winning the hand. When I went all-in, I figured I was going to get called. This would make the pot $146, not counting the $76 I was about to put into it. With pot odds of 2 to 1, and a 42% chance to win, I made a mathematically correct decision. I also figured there was a slight chance this guy would fold his hand to my re-raise. But it wasn't strong enough for him to do so. Had I won that hand, my stack is $220 and I'm about even for the night. Shit happens.

All I can do is pick myself up, go back to the casino on Monday, and play the same way I did on Saturday. Play the numbers, make the tough lay downs, wait for the hands. They have to come eventually.