PLAYING WELL AND STILL LOSING

There was a hand at the Turning Stone last night, pocket Jacks against pocket Queens. The player with Jacks raised to $35 under the gun ($1/$2 blinds). The player with Queens called. The flop were all low cards. The player with Jacks bet about $20, the player with Queens moved all-in. The player with Jacks called. The turn was a blank and the river was a Jack.

The player with Jacks proceeded to shoot imaginary guns at the player with Queens. Later, the player with Jacks justified his play by saying that he made a good call because he won the hand. However, the numbers disagree.

Before the flop, the Queens were an 81% favorite. After the flop, they were a 92% favorite. Calling when you're 8% to win, and the pot odds are not 11 to 1 is an incorrect call no matter how you slice it. The player with Queens played the hand perfectly, in my opinion. But he still lost.

The same thing happened to me ad nauseum last night. I believe I played solidly, not perfectly, but better than most players at the table. I still lost $272 though.

The beginning was rough. I made some stupid calls with the 2nd best flush draw, and lost to the nut flush draw. That was $23 down the drain. Then I had Jack-8 on the button, flopped top pair, turned 2 pair, and lost to a flush on the river.

The player who had called an all-in with an 8% chance to win raised late with 6-3, then showed it. On the next hand, he raised with T-9. I called with J-T. Another player called with Q-J. Before the flop, I was in pretty bad shape, only a 15.5% chance to win it. The flop was a miracle, though. Queen, 9, 8. So I had the nut straight, and there was no flush draw to protect against.

I checked, first to act. The player with Q-J had flopped top pair and a straight draw so he bet out. The player with T-9 had 2nd pair and a straight draw, so he called. I raised. The player with Q-J went all-in for a few dollars more. The player with T-9 called. I called. At this point, I was 79.7% to win. But I was also 16.8% to tie. I was 96.5% likely to make money on the hand.

The turn was a 10, which fucked me over. It gave the kid with T-9 outs to win the hand, and gave the kid with Q-J the same straight as me. I now had no chance to outright win the hand, and a 7% chance of losing it. The kid with T-9 pushed all-in after my check, and I called. The river was a blank. I made money on the hand, but if the 10 hadn't come, I would've made about $80 more. I think the kid with T-9 would have been bad enough to go all-in even without hitting 2 pair.

After hours of folding crappy hands, not even suited connectors or anything, absolute garbage, I started bluffing at pots. The calling stations at the table gave me action, but called with crappy hands that would hit. I raised preflop with rags, and the flop was 7, Ace, Ace. I bet at it, and a guy called me. I knew he had a 7. The turn was, of course, a 7. I bet at it again, but he wasn't good enough to fold a lower full house so I lost the pot.

I won a few small and mid-sized pots to keep about $100 down on the night for most of my session. Then I got Aces in the small-blind. I was hoping to win at least a small pot with them. I raised to $12 and got 2 callers. The flop were all low cards, two of which were diamonds. I wanted to take it down right there. I bet out $15 and got a caller. The river was the 4 of diamonds. I bet out $15 again. This time, it was raised to $30. Now I knew that the other guy had hit his BS flush. But, I had the Ace of diamonds so I called the $15. The river was a blank. I checked, the other player bet $30, and I folded the Aces in his face. I was pretty pissed.

He had something like J-9 of diamonds. I know he had the Jack of diamonds, and the other diamond was a non-face card that was in the middle of the the deck. Before the flop, I was a 4 to 1 favorite against him. On the flop, I was a 2 to 1 favorite. This technically means his calling of my $15 was a good call ($15 call into a $65 pot). However, if I had two higher diamonds, it would be an erroneous call.

The turn gave the other guy the best hand, but I was still 16% to win the hand with the nut flush draw. I called a $15 bet into a pot of $125 (8.33 to 1 pot odds) and figured the implied odds were even better. If I hit one of the remaining 7 diamonds in the deck (particularly the king or queen), I could have taken at least $50 on the river, if not more. I figured the implied pot was about $175 for me (11.67 to 1 implied odds with a hand that was 5.25 to 1 to win).

Of course, the blank river meant I had to fold my Aces.

I had to fold Ace Queen a few times preflop. Once to Ace-King, once to tens. Each time it was the same situation. I'd get A-Q early or under the gun, raise a small amount to keep too many people from staying in, establish strength, and to build a pot. Then the same stupid player would re-raise me a huge amount. Each time, I knew I was either beat, or it was a race.

Racing is pointless in a cash game unless you have odds. To go heads up with big slick suited against a pocket pair is foolish, in my opinion. You mind as well go to the roulette table, and put $100 on black. It's essentially the same bet. Sometimes, it is good to race. If you've got Ace-King and you're up against two people, each with pairs, then it isn't so bad to race. You're about a 40% favorite, with a pot that is 50% bigger.

I folded tens preflop. This guy raised very strong under the gun and I put him on AA or KK. I was in the big blind, and everyone else folded. It wasn't worth it to either race or be dominated 4 to 1.

My last hand came 11 hours into playing. At this point I had been whittled away to a stack of about $100 in chips. I looked down at Ace-Jack suited in late position and raised to $7. Again, just trying to build a pot, get the button, and establish strength. I got 4 callers. The flop was 6, 8, 7. The 8, and 10 were of spades, just like my Ace-Jack. Everyone checked to me. I bet $15 with the nut flush draw and 2 overs. I got one caller, two folders, then this guy raised me, $40 on top. This would essentially put me all-in. I didn't think he had a straight, or a set. I finally put him on a pair. I didn't know if it was a pair on the board, or in his hand. With my 2 overcards, and my nut flush draw, I was around even money to win the hand, so I pushed in all my chips, $36 on top of his $40 raise. He called without hesitation. He flipped over a 6 and a 4 of spades.

I was confused, because I thought 6-4 was a crappy hand. I was pleased to see I had a good deal of outs (13 of them), but I was upset that he had 2 of the spades I needed to win the hand. The turn was an 8 of diamonds, and the river was a 2 of clubs. It was 3 AM and I was tired of the BS, so I drove home.

On the hand, I was 2 to 1 preflop against 6-4 of spades. I went all-in with a 42% chance of winning the hand. When I went all-in, I figured I was going to get called. This would make the pot $146, not counting the $76 I was about to put into it. With pot odds of 2 to 1, and a 42% chance to win, I made a mathematically correct decision. I also figured there was a slight chance this guy would fold his hand to my re-raise. But it wasn't strong enough for him to do so. Had I won that hand, my stack is $220 and I'm about even for the night. Shit happens.

All I can do is pick myself up, go back to the casino on Monday, and play the same way I did on Saturday. Play the numbers, make the tough lay downs, wait for the hands. They have to come eventually.