It's Better to Have a Hand, then Outs

This was the wisdom that an older player sitting at the $100 NL game at Turning Stone imparted on a guy after he called an all-in with a gutshot straight draw and a flush draw but didn't hit. It really made me think that I did the right thing earlier in the day when I folded but would have won a massive pot.

I had Ace Ten of hearts on the button. Ace-Ten suited is my favorite hand. I limped in. The small blind raised to $10. About 5 others called so I called. I knew my Ace was dead, but I saw a large pot building and figured my $10 would allow me to see a pot and give me potential access to a massive pot. The flop was the 8 of hearts, the 10 of clubs, and the king of hearts. I had 2nd pair, the nut flush draw, and the backdoor nut straight draw. I also had an overcard. I was going to bet out and try to win the pot if it came to me. Unfortunately, the player under the gun bet $60, which seems like a big bet but it was about the size of the pot. I was going to call hoping to hit a set, two pair, or a flush. After some folds, the player 2 seats to my right re-raised all-in. He had $194 total. At this point, I had about $225 in chips.

The question was this, do I chase my outs for pretty much all of my stack in order to win this gigantic pot. The pot at this point had $254 but I figured the original raiser must have had a hand storng enough to call an all-in and any all-in I made so the pot would be about $400 because of this. I was 2 to 1 on my money. But it was all my money. This is the problem grinding has presented to me. Too often, I have to risk most of my stack to win the big hands.

I knew I had outs, but the question was how many did I have? Against both of these guys having just a pair, I would have 14 outs (9 hearts, 3 Aces, 2 tens). However, I figured at least one of the 6 preflop callers had to have an Ace in their hand, so there goes 1 of my outs. I also recognized the possibility that a player had Ace-King which removed the Aces as possible outs. I also recognized the possibility that a player hit a set which would remove the Aces and tens as outs and give them outs to make a boat even if I hit my flush. It just wasn't fucking worth it. I had to fold my drawing hand because it was a drawing hand. It turns out that I wouldn't have been in bad shape because both players only had top pair. The bettor had King-Jack, the raiser had King-Queen. I would have had 13 outs because the preflop raiser folded an Ace. Thirteen outs with a turn and river isn't a bad thing to have, but it just wasn't worth all my chips. The King-Queen held up and the player took down a massive pot. The turn was the 6 of hearts which would have given me the nuts and a massive pot. I had to fold tho.

Now, if the guy who went all-in on the flop had simply called the $60, I probably would have called. The pot odds would be about 3 to 1 and the implied odds would be even better. Plus, seeing how they reacted to the turn would give me even more information. Had I called the $60, the calling station to my left would have most likely called the $60 with a gutshot straight draw (he had Ace-Jack so he had 3 outs, the two black Queens and the Queen of diamonds). The pot would be about $300 at this point. The turn wouldn't scare too many people, and I'd be last to act. Even if everyone checked, I would definately check not really fearing any outdraw with the exception of the board pairing. Let's say the 3rd heart scares everyone and we all check. The river Ace would give the player to my left top pair. He would bet it strong. The players with Kings would probably fold if they had a brain in them. I would get all my chips in there and get a call. I would have won about $400 of profit on that hand if that kid to my right didn't re-raise with his hand.

His re-raise could be described as very intelligent or very foolish. He protected his hand from my drawing hand as well as the draw of the guy to my left. He also risked $194 with only top pair and the 2nd best possible kicker. The last time he bet big and I was sitting after him, I doubled up with a set of 3s.

It would have been nice to win that pot, but did the right thing. I still made money on the trip which says alot considering the price of gas these days.