True Grinder

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Wait, Aces Aren't Supposed to Hold Up

So I'm in early position and look down at WMD, American Airlines, Rockets, Aces. I raise to $12 ($1/$2) blinds. This is a solid raise, especially in early position. However, I get one caller, then another, then another, and then another. Even though I have Aces, I'm worried. Here were the hands I was up against: King-Jack, Ace-Queen, Five-Seven, and King-Deuce. Here are the preflop percentages:

AA: 58.1%
KJ: 9.5%
AQ: 5.85%
75: 21.2%
K2: 5.6%

Even though I'm 58.1% to win, and about 3 to 1 against any individual hand, I'm still a little nervous. Actually, the situation could have been a lot worse. If I was up against a few suited connectors and a few small pairs, then I'd be in real trouble. Aces are only 42% to win against pocket 4s, 8s, JTs, and 56s, for instance.

So the flop came with 5 players in the hand and a $60 pot. Ten of clubs, six of clubs, eight of spades. I still had the best hand with Aces, no other player had a pair. The player with 7-5 had an open ended straight draw. As you might be able to guess, he wasn't very good at poker. Here were the odds after the flop:

AA: 59.4%
KJ: 4.1%
AQ: 2.8%
75: 32.7%
K2: 1.1%

I bet out $15, hoping to get a few players out. However, all but one of them believed me. The player with King-Jack called, he had two overs to the flop, a backdoor flush draw and a backdoor straight draw. Ace-Queen called, same stuff. The player with 7-5 raised to $30. The player with K-2 believed me and folded. I called the $15, worried that the moron had flopped two pair or a set or a straight. K-J called, A-Q called. Four players in the hand with a $180 pot.

The turn card was a Queen of spades. This gave K-J another straight draw, and A-Q top pair. I checked, K-J went all-in for $27. A-Q called, 7-5 called. The way 7-5 just called let me know that he didn't have something absolutely massive like a straight or a set or two pair. I called the $27. Here were the percentages:

AA: 71.1%
KJ: 13.2% (5 outs: four 9s, and one Ace for a straight)
AQ: 5.3% (2 outs: two Queens)
75: 10.5% (4 outs, four 4s)

So 11 cards in the deck give me a losing hand, 27 cards give me a winning hand. The river was one of those 27, an 8 of hearts. However, I was still worried. There was a straight draw on the board and it had paired. I checked, A-Q checked, and 7-5 led out, $40. I didn't know if I was good so I just called. A-Q called as well. I was relieved to win the hand with my Aces up I was also pleased to win a $408 pot.

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